We have a glorious two-game slate of NFL manliness for Saturday January 11th and I want to talk about it because I love DraftKings and I love daily fantasy football even though it's really difficult. The key to winning tournaments in DFF is to get wacky and separate yourself from the thousands of other lineups you're competing with.
Chalk QB: Lamar Jackson
File this under "no shit" but Lamar Jackson is really good at football and therefore arguably even better at fantasy football. His rushing upside / floor here at home to a fairly hapless Steelers team makes him the safe play with the most upside. The other 3 QBs on the Saturday slate of games cannot compete with his insane ceiling. Few other QBs in the entire league can, for that matter. Jackson will be heavily owned and for good reason.
Contrarian Play: CJ Stroud
Playing Russ here is a little too rich for my blood. Stroud on the other hand will be similarly low-owned relative to Jackson and offers some passing upside stacked with Nico Collins (more on him soon) and Dalton Schultz. Bonus points for stacking Stroud with Metchie who is a deep threat week to week.
Chalk RB: Derrick Henry
The Big Dog will be 60-70% owned as he should be. If you are bold enough to stack Steelers players against the Ravens you definitely want Henry in your lineups.
Sneaky Play: Justice Hill
Chalk-ish RB: JK Dobbins
Dobbins will receive an insane workload in a game the bookies like the Chargers to win. Game script is on his side against a middle of the road Texans team that only made the playoffs because of their shitty division. Dobbins will not cede many carries to the likes of Zeke Elliott (!) so play him with confidence even in a road matchup.
Chalk WRs: Ladd McConkey and Nico Collins
Hard to avoid playing one if not both of these dudes. Collins in particular with the Texans likely to be playing from behind here against a better Chargers team.
Sneaky WRs: Good luck figuring it out but you gotta like Agholar or Wallace for Baltimore. Not sure who actually profiles as the WR2 in this offense now that Flowers it out but someone is catching something. A nice pivot off of Bateman. Keep in mind the target share in Baltimore is relatively flat and changes week to week.
Extreme Galaxy Brain Big Brain Play
Mike Williams because just do it ok?
Chalk TE: Mark Andrews
With Flowers out it should be Mark Andrews who benefits the most in terms of target share. Keep in mind we aren't that far removed from a time where Andrews was the clear target alpha in the Ravens offense. He's hitting his stride and should command 8ish targets.
Stack Considerations: Any and all Ravens onslaught stacks are in play here as it's unfathomable that the Steelers win this game. I'll be big on Henry stacked with the Ravens D and then look for underowned WRs in the Texans vs. Chargers game. Henry AND Justice Hill lineups are also in play. Good luck!
Chalk QB: Lamar Jackson
File this under "no shit" but Lamar Jackson is really good at football and therefore arguably even better at fantasy football. His rushing upside / floor here at home to a fairly hapless Steelers team makes him the safe play with the most upside. The other 3 QBs on the Saturday slate of games cannot compete with his insane ceiling. Few other QBs in the entire league can, for that matter. Jackson will be heavily owned and for good reason.
Contrarian Play: CJ Stroud
Playing Russ here is a little too rich for my blood. Stroud on the other hand will be similarly low-owned relative to Jackson and offers some passing upside stacked with Nico Collins (more on him soon) and Dalton Schultz. Bonus points for stacking Stroud with Metchie who is a deep threat week to week.
Chalk RB: Derrick Henry
The Big Dog will be 60-70% owned as he should be. If you are bold enough to stack Steelers players against the Ravens you definitely want Henry in your lineups.
Sneaky Play: Justice Hill
Chalk-ish RB: JK Dobbins
Dobbins will receive an insane workload in a game the bookies like the Chargers to win. Game script is on his side against a middle of the road Texans team that only made the playoffs because of their shitty division. Dobbins will not cede many carries to the likes of Zeke Elliott (!) so play him with confidence even in a road matchup.
Chalk WRs: Ladd McConkey and Nico Collins
Hard to avoid playing one if not both of these dudes. Collins in particular with the Texans likely to be playing from behind here against a better Chargers team.
Sneaky WRs: Good luck figuring it out but you gotta like Agholar or Wallace for Baltimore. Not sure who actually profiles as the WR2 in this offense now that Flowers it out but someone is catching something. A nice pivot off of Bateman. Keep in mind the target share in Baltimore is relatively flat and changes week to week.
Extreme Galaxy Brain Big Brain Play
Mike Williams because just do it ok?
Chalk TE: Mark Andrews
With Flowers out it should be Mark Andrews who benefits the most in terms of target share. Keep in mind we aren't that far removed from a time where Andrews was the clear target alpha in the Ravens offense. He's hitting his stride and should command 8ish targets.
Stack Considerations: Any and all Ravens onslaught stacks are in play here as it's unfathomable that the Steelers win this game. I'll be big on Henry stacked with the Ravens D and then look for underowned WRs in the Texans vs. Chargers game. Henry AND Justice Hill lineups are also in play. Good luck!
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