While I don't claim to be an expert (think Condia, ChipotleAddict, PapaGates etc.) I do boast a lifetime positive EV on Draftkings and have won more than one daily fantasy football tournament. In case you have been living under a rock, you've probably heard that the Super Bowl, Super Bowl 59 to be precise, is this Sunday. The Chiefs are going for a 3peat but the Eagles have a better roster. But the Chiefs have Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid. Below are some considerations and angles for building lineups for the Super Bowl 59 Showdown slate on DraftKings for this game. Let's get to it.
Saquon Barkley comes into this game with an implied over/under of like 110 rushing yards. That's a lot but he's really flipping good. He's also expensive on DraftKings. I normally fade the most expensive plays in the Captain spot on Draftkings but I'm making an exception for Saquon because the nature of the Chiefs offense allows for some interesting cheap options to fill out your roster. More on that later. Even if Barkely doesn't score a TD it's very difficult to envision a scenario, especially in what projects to be a close game, where he doesn't end up in the optimal lineup, captain or not. Fading him is too rich for my blood especially when advanced metrics suggest the Chiefs run defense is suspect.
Similarly I have a hard time fading Mahomes from any lineup. Bot these guys will be highly played and I don't think this is the way to get different with your lineups.
Players I like: Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Harrison Butker, Chiefs D. Kelce had a bad game last week by Playoff Kelce standards and should bounce back here. The Chiefs are also very susceptible to giving up yards in the middle of the field and that makes me like Goedert, who's been busy lately, a strong safe play. Lots of upside with Devonta and he's due for a TD - a sneaky Captain play especially if you think the Eagles will be playing catchup and passing a lot.
The Chiefs D is an odd contrarian play and should be low owned. Keep in mind that the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl the optimal lineup was:
Captain Hurts
Mahomes
Devonta Smith
AJ Brown (both WRs stacked with Hurts)
Skyy Moore (did basically nothing but was cheap and caught a TD late)
Cheifs Defense (crazy contrarian play that still got there because of a defensive TD)
Players I am fading: AJ Brown, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt, JuJu Smith
JuJu jumps out as way too cheap relative to his role in this offense. This is intriguing but he will be highly played as a result. I weirdly prefer pivoting to Hopkins who is more expensive and basically shares the #3 WR role with JuJu. Both guys are pretty washed and there's not much upside here but Hopkins gives you a better chance to separate from the field.
Big Brain Galaxy Plays - We saw Mecole Hardman have a big game last Super Bowl due to some long receptions. He made the most of his opportunities. Justin Watson is the boom or bust guy I like here. I have a very hard time playing any low owned Eagles players - maybe Calcaterra as a fade on Barkley if you want to get really wacky.
Even Bigger Brained Play - Nikko Remigio
*checks notes* this guy is the Chiefs punt returner and their #6 WR. He's also $200 on DraftKings. Do with this info what you want. Get totally unique and stack him with the Chiefs defense and hope for a punt return TD.
My sample lineup:
Captain Barkley
Mahomes
Hunt
Goedert
Hollywood
Hopkins
Saquon Barkley comes into this game with an implied over/under of like 110 rushing yards. That's a lot but he's really flipping good. He's also expensive on DraftKings. I normally fade the most expensive plays in the Captain spot on Draftkings but I'm making an exception for Saquon because the nature of the Chiefs offense allows for some interesting cheap options to fill out your roster. More on that later. Even if Barkely doesn't score a TD it's very difficult to envision a scenario, especially in what projects to be a close game, where he doesn't end up in the optimal lineup, captain or not. Fading him is too rich for my blood especially when advanced metrics suggest the Chiefs run defense is suspect.
Similarly I have a hard time fading Mahomes from any lineup. Bot these guys will be highly played and I don't think this is the way to get different with your lineups.
Players I like: Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Harrison Butker, Chiefs D. Kelce had a bad game last week by Playoff Kelce standards and should bounce back here. The Chiefs are also very susceptible to giving up yards in the middle of the field and that makes me like Goedert, who's been busy lately, a strong safe play. Lots of upside with Devonta and he's due for a TD - a sneaky Captain play especially if you think the Eagles will be playing catchup and passing a lot.
The Chiefs D is an odd contrarian play and should be low owned. Keep in mind that the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl the optimal lineup was:
Captain Hurts
Mahomes
Devonta Smith
AJ Brown (both WRs stacked with Hurts)
Skyy Moore (did basically nothing but was cheap and caught a TD late)
Cheifs Defense (crazy contrarian play that still got there because of a defensive TD)
Players I am fading: AJ Brown, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt, JuJu Smith
JuJu jumps out as way too cheap relative to his role in this offense. This is intriguing but he will be highly played as a result. I weirdly prefer pivoting to Hopkins who is more expensive and basically shares the #3 WR role with JuJu. Both guys are pretty washed and there's not much upside here but Hopkins gives you a better chance to separate from the field.
Big Brain Galaxy Plays - We saw Mecole Hardman have a big game last Super Bowl due to some long receptions. He made the most of his opportunities. Justin Watson is the boom or bust guy I like here. I have a very hard time playing any low owned Eagles players - maybe Calcaterra as a fade on Barkley if you want to get really wacky.
Even Bigger Brained Play - Nikko Remigio
*checks notes* this guy is the Chiefs punt returner and their #6 WR. He's also $200 on DraftKings. Do with this info what you want. Get totally unique and stack him with the Chiefs defense and hope for a punt return TD.
My sample lineup:
Captain Barkley
Mahomes
Hunt
Goedert
Hollywood
Hopkins
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